Have you ever wondered about the likelihood of an event occurring? Whether it’s the odds of your favorite football team winning on Sunday or how much you pay for car insurance, probability concepts can play a role in making those determinations.
Respond to the following questions in a minimum of 175 words:
- Consider a situation that you might need to use your understanding of probability to make an informed decision. Discuss a specific example of a decision that you have made in the past, or contemplating for the future.
- What sorts of information would you collect? Discuss how would you estimate the probabilities of the possible outcomes based on the information you collect and the readings for this week.
- How might you use what you have learned about probability to determine a course of action?
- What are the possible benefits and limitations of using the probability approach for decision making?
RESPOND TO KELLY, MAGGIE, AND CASIANA POST
Based on my experience, playing fantasy sports would be a great example of probability. You chose the best player based on their performance statistic from the prior year. Where probability comes into play is you are never guaranteed certain players, and if you are granted the player you are wanting, their statistics could differ the current year versus the previous years.
Some of the information you gather would obviously be using their statistics and average based on position. For example, a quarterback has an average passing and snap per game. Based on their average, it could determine whether the game is won or lost. You as a fantasy player need to have a few choices on picking the players that represent your fantasy team to have a better probability of moving to the next round. If you pick the top three, the probability of other fantasy players picking the same player is high, so it would be a good idea to have back up players in mind that have high stats that will benefit your probability in the fantasy game.
Another source that you would need to gather to play would be getting friends or people you may know that would like to participate in the fantasy game. The entirety of playing fantasy sports is all based on who’s team has the higher “probability” of winning.
In my current workplace I experience a charismatic leader. They have as vision on the vison and how things should be. A lot of managers in my workplace of are like this due to the company. The company has audits that need completed, these audits set the standards of items that need completed and they are cut and dry. They are following the SOP and you are graded on how to you follow it to the T. I believe that a transactional leader is always a good one. They praise the great employees and reprimanding the not-so-great ones. With this it makes the good employees want to do better and, they don’t feel like they are picking up someone else’s slack. This will also weed out the employees that are not working and could be bring down the moral in the staff. Some of the items that help with the business strategies are the expert power and referent power. In my industry these people know how to take care of floors, with that you show them you trust them, and they are the expert in what they do, giving them that empowerment makes them work harder and achieve more goals for you, which in turn makes the company look great.
I work in the retail, food, and industrial waste industry, and let me tell you they all have different types of leadership styles and theories they follow. My current position is as an on-site administrator for Clean Harbors. The leadership theory that I have seen them use is servant leadership and behavioral leadership. These two seem to work hand in hand within the company. What I mean by this is that all the managers and leaders focus on making sure their subordinates have what they need to be successful while always available if any help is needed. This shows strong servant leadership. With behavioral it’s more of a learning tool for everyone to reflect upon. We strive for safety so when we see something out of place or an accident about to happen, it’s in everyone’s interest to know about it and learn from the mishap. It is not to say one leadership theory is more effective than another but focuses on different outcomes. I would also have to say that leader-member relations help with the company’s business strategies and goals because of how the comet is shaped and how the managers and the uppers are, do have the trust of their employees especially when in the field, or plant because not having trust with another can cost some their life or lives.