Decision-Making Biases and Pitfalls

1. Must be 100% Plagiarism free!!!

2. each assignment must contain 4 pages of content plus the bib and title sheet.

Connect with a professional writer in 5 simple steps

Please provide as many details about your writing struggle as possible

Academic level of your paper

Type of Paper

When is it due?

How many pages is this assigment?

3. must read the assignment info carefully and follow instructions.

4. If done well will have 2 more assignments

5. will pay $60.00 only no negotiating for this assignment

MUST ENSURE YOU READ THE BACKGROUND AND BASE THE DISCUSSION PAGE ON THE DISCUSSION COMMENTS LISTED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE WITH FELLOW CLASSMATES.

PLEASE ENSURE THE OBJECTIVES ARE MET.  THANKS

Module 2 – Background

Decision-Making Biases and Pitfalls

Required Material

A good place to start is this short video that will give you an overview of decision making biases:

Lombardo, J. (2014). Common Biases and Judgment Errors in Decision Making Organizational Behavior. Education Portal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAbdmV3VOwA

Now go through the following three readings to get a deeper understanding:

Bolland, E., & Fletcher, F. (2012). Solutions: Business problem solving. (Available from Trident Online Library. Read only the relevant chapters.)

Kourdi, J. (2011). Chapter 10: Avoiding the pitfalls and developing an action plan. Effective Decision Making: 10 Steps to Better Decision Making and Problem Solving. London: Marshall Cavendish International [Asia] Pte Ltd. [eBook Business Collection]

Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1998). The hidden traps in decision-making. Harvard Business Review, 76(5), 47-58. [Business Source Complete]

Optional Material

Trevis Certo, S., Connelly, B. L., & Tihanyi, L. (2008). Managers and their not-so rational decisions. Business Horizons51(2), 113-119.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Module 2 – Case ASSIGNMENT 1

Decision-Making Biases and Pitfalls

Case Assignment

Even the most intelligent manager is prone to personal biases and pitfalls that can lead to bad decisions. We all carry biases based on our personal experiences. And we can all fall into various traps that lead to decisions that seem perfectly logical at the time but in retrospect, we see that we should have known better.

In the background materials, including Bolland and Fletcher (2012); Kourdi (2003); and Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa (2008); several specific decision-making biases and pitfalls are discussed. Collectively these are known as cognitive biases. Some of the common pitfalls and biases discussed in these readings include overconfidence bias, confirmation (self-confirming) bias, sunk-cost bias, framing bias, and hindsight bias.

Carefully review all three of these readings and make sure you understand the different types of biases. Then read through the scenarios below and think about what kind of biases are demonstrated in each scenario. For each scenario, carefully explain which specific bias or biases is demonstrated by the decision and what can be done to avoid this bias in the future. Make sure to pick at least one specific bias that you read about for each scenario, and explain your reasoning. Use references to at least one of the three required readings from the background materials in your discussion of each scenario below. Your paper should be 4–5 pages in length:

1. The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of a corporation is of the strong belief that marketing is not a good use of the company’s money. Someone shows her data from several years ago showing that during a period of high spending on marketing, sales did not go up. She says, “See, I told you marketing is not a good use of our budget!” and cuts the marketing budget to almost zero. Following the cut in the marketing budget, sales also start to drop dramatically. When asked by an employee if the drop in sales is due to the cut in the marketing budget, she says, “No!” and insists there must be a different explanation. What kind of decision-making bias do you think this represents, and why? What steps would you recommend to this CEO to reduce this kind of bias? Support your answer with references to at least one of the three background readings.

2. A CEO decides that he wants to greatly expand the company’s market by purchasing a major rival. This acquisition would double the company’s market share. However, several of his top managers warn him that such a purchase would require the company to take out a huge amount of debt to finance this merger, and that many of these large mergers have failed. They also point out that the organizational culture of the other company is very different and that managing this merger would be very difficult. Nonetheless, the CEO insists that he can overcome the odds and plans to go through with the merger. What kind of decision-making bias do you think this represents, and why? What steps should this leader take to avoid this bias? Support your answer with references to at least one of the three background readings.

3. A CEO wants to purchase a new factory. He is currently deciding between two factories. The owner of Factory A brags that 94% of products produced at the factory are free of defects. The owner of Factory B cautions that his factory has a 5% defect rate but management and staff are working very hard to reduce the rate. The CEO decides to purchase Factory A citing its strong 94% rate of success in producing defect-free products even though Factory B actually has a 95% rate of success. What kind of decision-making bias do you think this represents, and why? What steps should this leader take to avoid this bias?

4. A CEO of an automobile company decides to introduce a new hybrid vehicle using cutting-edge technology. A huge amount of money is spent in research and development as well as advertising. But when the car is completed sales are very slow and the price has to be cut so low that the company is losing money on every hybrid vehicle sold. She is advised to simply abandon the car to avoid further losses in profits, and focus her energy on selling profitable vehicles. However, she insists it is unwise to abandon the hybrid vehicle given that so much money has already been put into the project. What kind of decision-making bias do you think this represents, and why? What steps should this leader take to avoid this bias? Support your answer with references to at least one of the three background readings.

5. Conclude the paper with a discussion about which one of the decision-making biases you think is the most dangerous to a leader, and explain your reasoning.

Assignment Expectations

· Follow the assignment instructions closely and follow all steps listed in the instructions.

· Stay focused on the precise assignment questions; don’t go off on tangents or devote a lot of space to summarizing general background materials.

· Make sure to cite readings from the background materials page. Rely primarily on the required background readings as your sources of information.

Include both a bibliography and in-text citations. See the Student Guide to Writing a High-Quality Academic Paper , including pages 13 and 14 on in-text citations.

Privacy Policy | C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASSIGNMENT 2, SLP 2

Module 2 – SLP

Decision-Making Biases and Pitfalls

We’ve all had experiences where we have been frustrated by a decision that our supervisor made. You have probably blamed this decision on your boss being “closed-minded,” “stubborn,” or “pigheaded.” But after reading the background materials you should be able to more precisely examine and define the precise decision-making biases or pitfalls that your supervisor made.

For this assignment, think of three bad decisions that your current or past supervisors made. For each decision, explain what bias discussed in the background materials likely led to this bad decision. You must use biases specifically discussed in Bolland and Fletcher (2012); Kourdi (2003); or Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa (2008). For each of the three decisions, include:

A) A brief description of the decision and why you think it was a bad one

B) What kind of bias you think lead to this decision, and why

C) A reference to one of the background readings from this module

Finally, conclude your paper with a discussion about which of the three readings from the background materials would be most useful for your supervisor to read in order to help make better decisions and avoid biases. Explain why you think this reading would be more useful than the other two readings.

The paper should be 2–3 pages in length.

SLP Assignment Expectations

· Follow the assignment instructions closely and follow all steps listed in the instructions.

· Stay focused on the precise assignment questions; don’t go off on tangents or devote a lot of space to summarizing general background materials.

· Make sure to cite readings from the background materials page. Rely primarily on the required background readings as your sources of information.

Include both a bibliography and in-text citations. See the Student Guide to Writing a High-Quality Academic Paper , including pages 13 and 14 on in-text citations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MUST ENSURE THE OUTCOMES RE MET…

Module 2 – Outcomes

Decision-Making Biases and Pitfalls

· Module

· Identify and explain the major cognitive biases and decision-making pitfalls that an organizational leader has to face.

· Case

· Identify and explain the major cognitive biases and decision-making pitfalls that an organizational leader has to face.

· Understand and apply methods of reducing cognitive biases.

· SLP

· Identify and explain the major cognitive biases and decision-making pitfalls in the context of your own workplace.

· Discussion

· Assess the credibility of information sources on cognitive biases.

 

 

 

DISCUSSION ASSIGNMENT . I HAVE ADDED 1 CLASSMATES VIDEO FOR DISCUSSION PAGE.

Decision-Making Bias Videos

· Submit Feedback

· Reflect in ePortfolio

Previous   Next 

 

Show Description

Most of the sources in the background materials are library textbook chapters or journal articles. In general, these sources are considered much more credible than various random webpages that you will find online. When finding an online source, you need to carefully consider the credibility of the source. Factors to consider include the credentials of the person who wrote the materials, whether this person is trying to sell you something, and of course you also need to use your own intuition as to whether or not a source seems credible.

Your task for this discussion is to go to YouTube or videos.google.com and find a video that explains cognitive/heuristic biases covered in the background materials such as confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, etc. Use word searches such as “decision-making biases,” “heuristic biases,” “overconfidence, anchoring, framing, confirmation bias,” and similar searches. You should find many videos, but the difficult part will be to try to find a video that is A) relevant to the topics covered in the module, B) from a credible source, and C) easy to understand and follow.

To find a video from a very credible source, look at a video from Nobel Prize winner and heuristic bias expert Daniel Kahneman. Credible yes, but I can’t guarantee you will stay awake during the video. So see if you can also find a video from a source that appears credible but and has information consistent with the background material readings but also keeps you awake and helps you understand the different types of decision-making biases.

Share the link with your classmates and explain why you think the video is both useful and credible, and which biases from the background materials the video helps explain.

Also, watch at least one other video posted by your classmates and share your thoughts on this video.

Rubrics

{count} items shown.{count} items selected.All items selected.Clear Selection

No items found.

· BSBA/BSHRM/BSL Undergraduate Discussion Grading Rubric – Timeliness v1

Feedback

more

Start a New Thread

Discussion

Filter by:

All Groups

All Threads

· Unread

· Flagged

|

Clear filters

Top of Form

Sort by:

 

 

Bottom of Form

Top of Form

{count} items shown.{count} items selected.All items selected.Clear Selection

There are no threads in this topic.

· Decision-Making Bias Videos

A Smith posted Nov 5, 2018 4:51 PM

Subscribed Subscribe

Group decision making involves compiling different ideas to come up with a final decision. Pre-mortem biasing technique describes a group decision where many characters influence it. Nevertheless, deciding for a group of people is always slow and biasing. Many organizations want an optimistic decision that in many cases it is biased between illusion and realistic ideas.  It involves different people’s perceptions and intuitions about a decision.

Heuristic biases are used when developing a solution to a complex problem, which is barely contrasting. There are two videos, which are recommendable for cognitive biases on a group decision. The first link (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f432ultnPQI) is more useful as it is more detailed about a team decision and how to overcome prejudices. It also points about a post-mortem technique, which makes people imaginative and optimistic in teamwork. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f432ultnPQI

 

· Decision Making

Contains unread posts

· Mark All Posts as Read

· Mark All Posts as Unread

· Flag Thread

·

· Print Thread

Angela Durden posted Oct 30, 2018 7:12 AM

Subscribed Subscribe

I found a short video about decision making on you tube

https://youtu.be/BYBJ1TJPdgE

. This video explained how to overcome cognitive bias In decision making . A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own “subjective social reality” from their perception of the input. Although the reality of these biases is confirmed by replicable research, there are often controversies about how to classify these biases or how to explain them. Some are effects of information-processing rules, called heuristics, that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision-maker

 

 

True

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

Author First Name A-Z