Case study # 2:

For this assignment, following APA style, answer as comprehensively as possible the questions after each case summary.

Please refer to the Best Homes, Inc. Forecasting on page 447 of the text and answer the questions that follow the synopsis below.

 Synopsis and Purpose

The purpose of this case is to expose students to the issues involved in forecasting. best Homes is a home construction company with headquarters in Kansas City, Missouri.  They construct only residential homes throughout the U.S. and only new homes.  Their reputation is based on building quality homes at a competitive price.  Forecasting the correct demand for new home construction is a challenging task. 

read the case study on pages 446-447 of the text and answer the following questions:

Questions:

  1. What forecasting methods should the company consider?  Please justify:
  2. Use the classical decomposition method to forecast average demand for 2016 by month.  What is your forecast of monthly average demand for 2016?
  3. Best Homes is also collecting sales projections from each of its regions for 2016. What role should these additional sales projections play, along with the forecast from question 2, in determining the final national forecast? 
  • Added comment by Dr. Schlueter:
    • All forecasting methods include errors, which can only be determined when the actual data become available.  The challenge remains to estimate the error in advance.  Note my lecture in class about how to respond to this challenge.  The decomposition approach is a good beginning, but it has to be expanded to get reasonable results on estimating the error associated with a sales forecast.  I expect that you incorporate my guidance in your thinking and address the technique at least in concept.  If you do not see the possibility to address this task within the five questions specified by the case study text, then create a separate answer for forecast error assessment.

Answers must be well thought-out and in discussion format. Short one-liner answers are not sufficient.

  • Answer the five questions at the end of the Case Synopsis and Purpose
  • Repeat each question ahead of your answer
  • Use headings to separate the response to each question
  • Make sure you answer each question
  • Follow APA style
  • Check grammar, spelling, sentence structure, etc

I strongly suggest you use a good proofreader for each written submission.